Catching up in Ukraine
It’s been a few weeks
The situation in Ukraine has changed substantially in the month since I first wrote about it, but the goals and strategy haven’t changed much. The Russians are still trying to capture and secure access to the Crimean Peninsula. The argument in this country about NATO membership by Ukraine was a smokescreen generated by internal feuding between foreign policy “experts” in the State Department and the Department of Defense, et al. What were they attempting to coverup?
After a few weeks, the NATO argument fell apart of its own fragility when Russia (and various elements within our own government) exposed US involvement in Ukraine funding bioweapons labs (more crimes against humanity curtesy of Anthony Fauci), NATO training camps, etc. The US and Ukrainian governments have been joined at the hip in various unsavory efforts just as Russia and Ukraine have been partners in cybercrime and other international corruption for decades. The Democratic Party accused Ukraine of stealing emails in 2016. Mike Lindell (among others) have accused them of hacking our election machines in 2020.
Don’t be diverted by various accusations of crimes against humanity, corruption or other forms of evil. The entire war is illegal. Everything else is war propaganda. This war is all about land and water.
The Russians accomplished most of their main goals in the first week by capturing the Severo-Krymsky Canal from its source at the Kakhovka Reservoir all the way back to Crimea. They learned soon after stealing Crimea from Ukraine 8 years ago that the peninsula was useless without water and secure overland access. They secured an overland route from Russia to Crimea within the second week, but they have one remaining obstacle.
The Ukrainian fighters in Mariupol have proven tougher than anyone imagined. For weeks, my experts assured me that the city would fall within “a day or two.” It’s been surrounded for over a month and nearly split in two for most of that time. Yet, the fighting continues. We should take a wait and see position on the outcome. The war will continue until this last stronghold in the south finally falls to the Russians.
In the meantime, the Russians have ceased operations in the north around the capital city of Kiev. They have pulled out their defeated units to recuperate and rejoin the fight in the east and the south. The Russians had hoped for a quick end to the war by capturing the capital and dictating terms of surrender from the office of Ukraine’s Prime Minister. That didn’t work despite the limited forces defending the city.
The military “experts” in our country have now classified that effort a “feint” – a diversion from the primary attack against the main body of the Ukrainian army in the east (Donbass). Be careful about pro-Russian analysis from the Internet and Russia-hyped analysis from US government “experts.” The US spent decades exaggerating Russian capabilities to fund our military during the Cold War. Old habits are hard to break.
Only now have the Russians decided to attack in the Donbass region. Don’t hold your breath. It may take another week or two for the Russians to pull themselves together. They have limited supplies to mount any offensive operations. Their forces are nearly spent. Most units from the north have fallen below the measure of combat effectiveness. Their units in the east have made no progress since the first three days of the war. And the main prize in the south still eludes surrender – Mariupol.
Russia still has a lot of troops and weapons inside Ukraine. They could strike at any time and catch the Ukrainians off guard or deal a fatal blow (even by accident) to their weary foe. However, I still think that the war now hinges on Mariupol on the coast of the Sea of Azov (adjacent to the Black Sea).